
An editorial by Kareem Hassanien
December 26th 2011
As we enter 2012 many Republicans are starting to believe the Mayan doomsday prophesy at the end of the year is possible as they scramble to find an electable candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. The only problem is like most horoscopes they are the victims of their own self-fulfilling prophecy. Not because of greenhouse gasses, violent weather or “fracking” for natural gas possibly contributing to increased earthquake activity but because of the fact that their own indecision and separation of their own party will eventually probably be the biggest factor in Obama being reelected.
Now this article comes about due to a series of around the table talks that inevitably happen at Xmas parties and large family meals. They are almost always brief, mostly unsubstantial and shelved as soon as someone feels they may not have a counter. Usually it ends with: 'Maybe I haven’t been following closely' or 'I’m not sure of all the facts' or in Canada we always have our favorite way out: 'Well doesn’t matter to me. I’m Canadian!' (as Russell Peters likes to state, we’re not fond of participating in world events). However usually I find one simplistic concept among people who only partially follow news (in between episodes of House Hunters and My Big Fat Gypsy Wedding). In short their idea is: Obama is for sure set to lose.
Now this statement usually comes in response to the unwavering idea that the US economy is in the toilet. While it is true that no US president has been reelected with unemployment where it is currently; that is like hockey stats about how many games a team wins at home against another given team. While there is truth to it, it really only mildly matters. More relevant is that Clinton is the only Democrat since FDR to win reelection. However one year out from election Nixon, Reagan and Clinton were all hovering barely a couple % points above Obamas current approval ratings and were all two termers.
The reality of a two party system is that the options are limited on purpose and you just have to pick which of the ugly girls to kiss. The biggest problem on the Republican side is there are two many ugly girls and for the most part those chicks are also nuts.
With the Iowa caucus less than 8 days away we’ll get a good idea of where the party is going to stand. Having a look at the diversity (I’m obviously referring to mindset not at all to any ethnic diversity) of the front-runners you get a good idea that the party really has absolutely no clue which way to go. The endless roller coaster of poll toppers has really been something to watch in the Republican primaries as they go from village to dell looking for anybody but Romney. Bachman ended up being crazy so they went to Perry. Then Perry opened his mouth and made Bush look like Plato so they moved to Herman Cain. Then the ex Pizzaman opened his pants so they had to move on from him. Although with Cain it looked like he could slip through anything when the allegations first started it was amazing how he just decided to show us he was a moron as well and just fed us gems (the classic Iran has mountains comment and my favorite bit on Libya: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WW_nDFKAmCo&feature=relmfu) .
So with the Republicans looking for a non-Romney savior they come back to Newt Gingrich. It’s been like getting back together with a boyfriend who cheated on you (which Newt is no stranger to). The base was cautious, had been hurt in the past by him and one part (the tea party part) just could never accept his old establishment Republican ways. Forget the scandals, affairs and all that. This good old fashioned compassionate conservative (remember when they called themselves that before they booed Gay Military servicemen and cheered for people being executed?) had to just sit back and enjoy the ride to the top but instead came out AGAINST child labor laws and suggested putting children to work as janitors and in the low wage jobs that poor people are having trouble getting now! Nothing stimulates the economy like taking jobs away from the lower class that can’t find a job and giving it to school kids.
Which brings us finally to the Iowa caucus. The first test of the primaries and where people finally start dropping out of the race (note: This is where I can mention Huntsman aka the other Mormon, and Santorum the other liberal hating Redneck.) The polls now indicate that Ron Paul (not to be confused with Rue Paul) is in the lead with Romney and Gingrich just behind. Just what the party needs a new frontrunner! Haven’t tried that yet. It’s a shame that Ron Paul will never be make it to the nomination because he really isn’t a republican. I’m not even sure he is a politician. His views are all over the roadhouse and he probably is the only candidate who doesn’t seem like he’s had a frontal lobotomy and has stuck to the exact same platform for his entire run. The problem is that platform was abhorrent to the base 4 months ago and is only now interesting because he is the last alternative. Still he could be the wildcard in Iowa and shake up the primary and is probably the only candidate who could actually pull voters away from Obama in the general election as young people seem to love his libertarian ideals and his disdain for any American troop foreign intervention.
This leaves us with the mortified Mormon. The guy who just cannot get people behind him but who will probably still get the nomination. Watching Poor Mitt Romney and the Republican base get together at this point is going to be like watching the couple on Virgin Diaries on TLC. They will eventually kiss but it will be the most awkward and uncomfortable situation that America could watch.
So where does that leave NObama? Well in a pretty good position actually. Many of the things the general electorate dislike about Obama they dislike about Romney. The rest of the party has bashed Romneycare as much as Obamacare and both are in the hands of big business. Gingrich is in on the party too. All have been known for flip flopping on issues and supporting action to curb carbon emissions (albeit in different ways). That doesn’t sit well with Republicans. Worse for Romney only one in four Americans believe Mormon views are close to their own (most of them are Mormon) and less than 60% are even willing to consider a Mormon in the white house according to the Wall Street Journal. This brutal primary season as well is sure to leave a lot of tea partiers disenchanted.
So Obama really is running against himself and as he’s been known to do he likes to turn things on at election time. He already is starting to finally after 3 years fire back and start attacking the Republican stalemate as the problem, instead of his own inability to lead and it’s already starting to stick. He has started pitching that his jobs plan has been held up by the House to win the election and keeps delivering messages under run down streets and bridges visually telling people like Neanderthals “Ug, you need job. Street need fix. Ug can fix street.”
So despite the media rhetoric this holiday season I think Obama is looking towards 2012 as not a year of doom as the Mayans truly saw it. Not as an end of days but as the beginning of a new age. One that sees him take of the gloves. It’s not a lock yet. There is enough rage out there for a third party candidate like Ron Paul goes it alone and this time last election cycle Hillary and Mike Huckabee looked like locks for party nomination but with the Republicans splitting up their own voters and independents fed up with the nonsense of the primaries 2012 could very well be the year of the second chances for a man who loves the word hope.